# Using Kelly Criterion on Football Betting.

If you’re a football betting enthusiast, you might have come across the Kelly Criterion at some point in your betting journey. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that helps bettors determine the optimal amount of money to wager on a particular bet. In this article, we’ll explore the Kelly Criterion and how it can be applied to football betting to maximize returns while minimizing risk.

## What is the Kelly Criterion?

The Kelly Criterion is a formula developed by John L. Kelly Jr., a researcher at Bell Labs, in the 1950s. The formula was initially developed to help investors determine the optimal amount of money to allocate to a particular investment. However, it has since been applied to various fields, including sports betting.

The Kelly Criterion takes into account the probability of a bet winning and the odds offered by the bookmaker.

The formula is as follows:

f* = (bp – q) / b
• f* = the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet
• b = the decimal odds offered by the bookmaker
• p = the probability of your bet winning (as a decimal)
• q = the probability of your bet losing (as a decimal), which is 1 – p

For example, let’s say you want to bet on a football game where the odds offered by the bookmaker are 2.00 (or even money). You believe that there is a 60% chance of your bet winning. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet would be:

f* = ((2.00 x 0.60) – 0.40) / 2.00 = 0.20 or 20%
This means that you should bet 20% of your bankroll on this particular bet.

## Why Use the Kelly Criterion in Football Betting?

The Kelly Criterion is a popular betting strategy because it allows bettors to maximize their returns while minimizing their risk. By using the Kelly Criterion, bettors can determine the optimal amount of money to wager on a particular bet based on their perceived edge and the odds offered by the bookmaker.

For example, let’s say you have a bankroll of £1,000 and you want to bet on five different football games. Without using the Kelly Criterion, you might bet £200 on each game, regardless of the perceived edge or the odds offered by the bookmaker. However, by using the Kelly Criterion, you can allocate your bankroll more efficiently and potentially increase your returns.

## Applying the Kelly Criterion to Football Betting.

To apply the Kelly Criterion to football betting, you need to estimate the probability of a bet winning and the odds offered by the bookmaker. Here are some steps to follow:

### Step 1: Research and Analysis.

To estimate the probability of a bet winning, you need to do research and analysis on various factors that can influence the outcome of a football game. These factors may include:

• Team form
• Injuries
• Home and away records
• Weather conditions
• Player suspensions
• Managerial changes
By analyzing these factors, you can form an opinion on the likelihood of a particular outcome.

### Step 2: Calculating Probabilities and Odds.

Once you’ve formed an opinion on the likelihood of a particular outcome, you can convert your opinion into probabilities and odds. To do this, you need to use a probability converter, which is a tool that converts odds into probabilities and vice versa.

### Step 3: Using the Kelly Criterion Formula

Once you have the probabilities and odds, you can use the Kelly Criterion formula to determine the optimal amount of money to wager on a particular bet. As mentioned earlier, the Kelly Criterion formula takes into account the probability of a bet winning and the odds offered by the bookmaker. By using the formula, you can determine the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet on a particular bet.

### Step 4: Implementing Your Bets

Once you’ve determined the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet on a particular bet, you can implement your bets accordingly. It’s important to note that the Kelly Criterion is not a guarantee of success and should be used in conjunction with other betting strategies.

## Advantages of Using the Kelly Criterion in Football Betting.

There are several advantages to using the Kelly Criterion in football betting:

Maximizes Returns.

The Kelly Criterion helps bettors maximize their returns by allocating their bankroll more efficiently. By betting the optimal fraction of their bankroll on each bet, bettors can potentially increase their returns over the long term.

Minimizes Risk.

The Kelly Criterion also helps bettors minimize their risk by taking into account the probability of a bet winning and the odds offered by the bookmaker. By betting the optimal fraction of their bankroll on each bet, bettors can potentially reduce their losses over the long term.

The Kelly Criterion takes into account your perceived edge, which is your opinion on the likelihood of a particular outcome. By considering your edge, the Kelly Criterion helps you bet more confidently and potentially increase your returns.

## Limitations of Using the Kelly Criterion in Football Betting.

While the Kelly Criterion is a popular betting strategy, there are some limitations to using it in football betting:

Difficult to Determine Probabilities.

One of the biggest challenges of using the Kelly Criterion in football betting is determining the probabilities of a bet winning. Football games can be unpredictable, and there are several factors that can influence the outcome of a game.

Assumes Accurate Edge.

The Kelly Criterion assumes that your perceived edge is accurate. If your edge is inaccurate, the Kelly Criterion may not be an effective betting strategy.

Ignores External Factors.

The Kelly Criterion only takes into account the probability of a bet winning and the odds offered by the bookmaker. It ignores external factors such as injuries, weather conditions, and player suspensions, which can also influence the outcome of a game.

## Conclusion.

The Kelly Criterion is a popular betting strategy that can help football bettors maximize their returns while minimizing their risk. By taking into account the probability of a bet winning and the odds offered by the bookmaker, the Kelly Criterion helps bettors allocate their bankroll more efficiently. However, it’s important to note that the Kelly Criterion is not a guarantee of success and should be used in conjunction with other betting strategies.

## FAQ.

Yes, the Kelly Criterion can be applied to other sports as well.
To determine the probability of a bet winning, you need to do research and analysis on various factors that can influence the outcome of a game.
Yes, the Kelly Criterion can be used for in-play betting as well.
The Kelly Criterion may not be suitable for all types of bettors, as it requires a certain level of skill and experience.
No, the Kelly Criterion is not necessary for football betting. However, it can be a useful tool for bettors who want to maximize their returns while minimizing their risk.